Analysis: World Cup semifinals bracket predictions: Picking the winners and key players for final four
After 100 matches at the 2026 World Cup, four soccer teams are still standing.
Kylian Mbappé and France overcame Morocco, Lamine Yamal and Spain eased past Belgium, and Jude Bellingham helped England eliminate Erling Haaland’s Norway in extra time. Lionel Messi and Argentina, the defending champions, became the final team through by defeating Switzerland with the help of a stunning extra-time strike from Julián Alvarez.
In the semifinals, France and Spain will square off in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday; England and Argentina will meet in Atlanta on Wednesday. The final will be Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (There will be a bronze medal match, on Saturday in Miami Gardens, Florida.)
So who will make the final? Who are the key players in each game? And is the final being played at the right stadium?
We asked our writers all of that and more, and this is what they said.
The best performance of the quarterfinals was?
THOM HARRIS: A Ballon d’Or winner can hardly go under the radar, but Rodri has been quietly rediscovering his most dominant form at the heart of the Spanish midfield. He was everywhere against Belgium, putting out fires all across the field with the unmatched sense of anticipation and positioning that makes him so good at playing the midfield role.
LUKAS WEESE: Kylian Mbappé. Not only did he score against Morocco, but he also took three Moroccan defenders with him, creating space for Ousmane Dembélé, who ultimately extended the France lead. Mbappé continues to elevate his level in this tournament.
JAMES HORNCASTLE: Jude Bellingham. England put in an understandably tired performance against Norway. Bellingham rose above it, as he so often does. As was the case at the Azteca. As was the case when England reached the final of the Euros in 2024. Name an England player in history with more big-game aura?
OLIVER KAY: Jude Bellingham. The story of England’s campaign has been one of unconvincing performances rescued by huge contributions from its two outstanding players. At times it has been Harry Kane, but on this occasion it was Bellingham. Incidentally, did you know St. Jude is the patron saint of lost causes? That quarterfinal against Norway would have been one of them for England without Bellingham.
PHIL HAY: France, all around. Once it got Morocco where it wanted, pinned in and struggling to mount any sort of attacks, the French turned the screw superbly. The two goals were lethal, again, and they seem to be able to pull out finishes of the highest quality at will. To repeat what everybody has been saying: The trophy is theirs to lose.
STU JAMES: Jude Bellingham. England is in the semifinals because of him -- as simple as that. It seems crazy to think that there was a debate not that long ago about whether Bellingham should go to the World Cup. To follow up his performance in the Azteca with another two goals says everything. His influence on this England team is huge. In fact, he is upstaging Harry Kane.
ADAM CRAFTON: It’s Jude Bellingham, but given everyone has said that, I will mention John Stones. Stones is out of contract and 32. For him to go the full distance for England in the brutal Miami heat and humidity represented a mighty effort, and he has not had enough credit for his patience and positioning in that two-on-one where he narrowed angles for Alexander Sorloth to pass to Erling Haaland.
Are the best four teams left?
HARRIS: All four sides have world-class match-winning talent and incredible strength in depth throughout the rest of their squad. They probably are the four strongest sides.
WEESE: I’d say yes. To use the NCAA tournament equivalent, it’s as if four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. This is a quartet of soccer powers with star players aplenty. It should provide a compelling conclusion to a memorable World Cup.
HENRY BUSHNELL: Yes, because there’s no clear next-best team. But among the semifinalists, there’s a clear top three, with England a small step below the rest.
LAURA WILLIAMSON: Yes. It’s almost like the four highest-ranked teams in the competition all won their groups and progressed to the semifinals.
Who will be the key player in each semifinal?
HARRIS: It’s an unoriginal choice, but Mbappé could decide the first match if he can time his runs in behind. The second semifinal features two other players in the race for the Golden Boot in Messi and Kane, but Bellingham only continues to illustrate his importance to this England side. Not just the critical goals, but the lung-busting runs to open spaces for others and his defensive intensity in midfield.
WEESE: I’ll go with Marc Cucurella of Spain in the first semifinal. He will have the primary assignment of Mbappé on the left flank. Spain has conceded one goal so far in this tournament. Cucurella will need to be sharp defensively. In the second semifinal, I’ll go with Bellingham. If he can be a force in the midfield and go on the attack against a vulnerable Argentina defense, England has a chance to advance to the World Cup final for the first time since 1966.
HORNCASTLE: Rodri. If Spain is to overcome France, it needs to keep the ball away from Didier Deschamps’ attacking players. In the other one, the Argentina center backs have come up with big goals. Will Cuti Romero use his head again? Or will he lose it?
SEB STAFFORD-BLOOR: To go slightly left field, Dayot Upamecano will need to have a very good game if France is to advance. The case for Mbappé or Michael Olise writes itself, but so much happens in the Spanish attacking midfield, and the team as a whole controls the ball so well that the French are going to have to reach a new defensive standard in a game that will most likely look different from all their others so far. England versus Argentina? England’s Declan Rice. His withdrawal against Norway at halftime was presumably forced, but his team was nowhere near as balanced or convincing without him. He has to play against Argentina, and he has to play well.
WILLIAMSON: I worry about that England defense (and the midfield, to be honest; I worry about a lot of things when it comes to England), so I’ll say Jordan Pickford if we’re picking one player to stop Messi and Argentina. Then Rodri feels key for Spain against France.
Pick your finalists
HARRIS: France versus England. But it’s a 50-50 for me between Argentina and England -- there are too many players who could potentially decide a game with a moment of quality.
WEESE: France versus Argentina. The 2022 World Cup final was an absolute epic and arguably one of the best in the tournament’s history. Sometimes, you get a sequel like “The Godfather Part II.” If it’s France and Argentina again, I have a feeling it could rival the 2022 version.
HORNCASTLE: Spain versus Argentina. Daring to be different here. Do I really believe it? No. Although have you seen Luis de la Fuente’s record in tournaments? And Spain can keep the ball away from France’s attackers.
WILLIAMSON: France versus … England. Or Argentina. Argh, never bet against England. It’s England.
Which stadium would you have chosen for the final?
HARRIS: It has to be Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, doesn’t it? An iconic arena, having hosted two finals, at the heart of a soccer-mad country. It is a venue fitting for the occasion.
WEESE: I’ll give a venue for each host nation. B.C. Place for Canada, SoFi Stadium for the United States and Estadio Azteca for Mexico.
HORNCASTLE: Consensus tells us the Azteca has established itself as the ultimate World Cup venue. If you’re drawing up the ideal World Cup, the final happens there.
KAY: I understand and partially agree with the argument for the Azteca. But doesn’t the depth of its World Cup history, having held two finals, suggest it would be a little greedy for it to host a third? I like the idea of the final being in New York. Does East Rutherford, New Jersey, count as New York? No, it doesn’t. And it’s not an enormously appealing venue, but I think I’m more comfortable with a -- in FIFA speak -- New York/New Jersey final than others are.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Copyright 2026 The New York Times Company
This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 6:56 PM.