Recession can wait: Columbus to add 1,000 jobs amid overall ‘good’ year for Georgia

Georgia as a whole should have a “surprisingly good” year economically, while the Columbus metro area looks to create about 1,000 jobs in a solid, but less than outstanding 2018.

And for those who are may fear the threat of a recession before the year is out, that’s not likely in 2018 at least, although the prospects of a downturn in 2019 are increasing.

That was the forecast in a nutshell delivered Wednesday at the Columbus Convention and Trade Center during the annual Georgia Economic Outlook luncheon, presented by the Terry College of Business and its Selig Center for Economic Growth. It is part of a statewide road show that launches each December.

Over a plate of chicken, green beans and rice, local business and community leaders heard Terry College Dean Benjamin Ayers tick off the highlights for the state and the center’s prognostications for the next 11 months. Filling in for the ill Selig Center director Jeff Humphreys with the Columbus forecast was Alexandra Hill, a research professional with the facility.

“The main factors that contributed to growth over the last few years will continue to do so in 2018,” said Ayers, who expects employment in Georgia to rise by 2 percent, which would top the 1.1 percent projected nationwide. Personal incomes in the Peach State should grow by just under 6 percent, he said.

The dean said the state should continue to land economic development projects as it has done in recent years due to its availability of workers and training programs poised to help get companies up and running quickly. Georgia’s unemployment rate should average around 4.9 percent, compared to the U.S. rate of 4.1 percent. That means the state’s supply of workers should be more ample than in other areas of the nation.

Factors which will come into play during the year include the inflow of people into the state, with Georgia’s population growing by 1.5 percent. The statewide housing market should see improvement as well, Ayers said, with single-family home construction starts rising by about 16 percent and home prices increasing 4 percent from 2017.

For the Columbus metro area, the 1,000 new jobs generated this year will be just under 1 percent growth, barring any new large economic development projects announced in 2018.

“I promise that I’m not here to sub in for Jeff because I have bad news,” Hill joked in her opening remarks. “The 2018 economic forecast for Columbus is good.”

Hill said elements which will influence the local outlook include the stable impact of Fort Benning and its large workforce, the expansion of companies such as Pratt & Whitney, Columbus State University’s continued growth, and large construction projects. The latter includes Rapids at Riverfront Place, which is the large W.C. Bradley downtown development overlooking the Chattahoochee River, and expansion of the John B. Amos Cancer Center by Columbus Regional Health.

On the home-building front, the Columbus area should experience “small gains” in single-family home construction starts this year, Hill said. But the housing market pricing still has yet to recover fully from the pre-recession peaks more than a decade ago. Prices are expected to increase “modestly” in 2018, with interest rates still low enough to attract prospective homeowners.

The “negatives” impacting Columbus, however, include the net migration of residents out of the area, she said, as well as subpar educational attainment levels, not enough high-tech jobs, and an overall economy that has not diversified enough.

The area also continues to rely heavily on the financial sector and leisure and hospitality jobs, she said, the latter due to the city’s high concentration of attractions which include the Chattahoochee River and its river walk and whitewater course, the National Civil War Naval Museum, the Springer Opera House, the RiverCenter for the Performing Arts and the National Infantry Museum.

Ayers also pointed out the potential for danger in Georgia’s economy — which would certainly impact Columbus — with most of the threats outside the state’s control, he said. That includes future interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which will make the cost of borrowing greater for both consumers and businesses. There also could be a slowing of multifamily construction statewide, while there remains uncertainty over healthcare policy. And, of course, world events both financially and militarily could shock the U.S. system, rippling through state and local economies.

“Even though we expect economic growth for Georgia, the economy is operating in either the late-middle or late stage of the current economic expansion,” Ayers said. “That alone does not mean a recession is imminent. Still, we believe that excesses are developing in both the financial markets and the labor markets, which make the overall economy increasingly vulnerable to the unexpected shock or policy mistake.”

This story was originally published February 1, 2018 at 5:48 PM with the headline "Recession can wait: Columbus to add 1,000 jobs amid overall ‘good’ year for Georgia."