’Can’t let our foot off the gas.’ One month into Columbus’ mask mandate, is it working?

While new cases were declining in the weeks before, city leaders and state health officials said the lack of a coronavirus surge following Labor Day weekend is a sign that Columbus’ mask mandate is doing its job.

Over the same period of time months ago, the effects of the July 4th holiday were already evident in Muscogee County’s data. But a similar trend has not yet appeared.

Hospitalizations and test positivity rates are down as well, suggesting the virus is spreading at a lower level than it was earlier in the summer. However, fewer coronavirus tests are being performed in Columbus and across the state, bringing concerns that health officials won’t be able to detect or track potential outbreaks before they become bigger problems.

“I think the mask mandate obviously is having some effect but the masks are not a magic bullet,” Mayor Skip Henderson told the Ledger-Enquirer. “It’s a big part of the overall prescription to try to hold down the spread. But I do think I think it has contributed to our numbers continuing to decline a little bit.”

The data in Muscogee

The number of newly reported coronavirus cases in Muscogee County was trending downward — with the largest reported decreases coming during July and early August — weeks before Henderson enacted a local mask ordinance.

Columbus reported its highest number of COVID-19 cases in a single day on July 10 at 190, and the seven-day average reached its highest point to date at 110 cases per day on July 14. Since then, Columbus hasn’t reported more than 100 cases in a single day since July 18.

Henderson enacted Columbus’ ordinance on Aug. 21, almost a week after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp gave local governments the go-ahead to mandate the use of face coverings provided the county met certain public health thresholds.

When the mandate took effect, Columbus had reported 636 cases from Aug. 8-Aug. 21 and averaged 34.14 new cases per day over the previous seven days. Columbus reported 262 new cases from Sept. 4-Sept. 17 and averaged 18.71 new cases per day over the previous seven days.

“That’s a big drop — (about) 400 cases, between the time that that went out and now,” said Pam Kirkland, a spokesperson for the state health department’s West Central Health District. “So I would say it’s been pretty successful.”

Did the mask mandate work?

The answer is complicated, but experts say it’s helping.

Large-scale public health data shows that communities where mask mandates were implemented report fewer cases and lower levels of COVID-19 transmission compared to those that do not, said Dr. Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at Georgia State University.

However, several factors could lead to a decline in cases, making it difficult to determine the effectiveness of one public health measure within a single county over a given period of time.

“There are obviously lots of factors that are driving COVID cases,” said Heiman. “So, it’s challenging to look at a single intervention and assess the impact of that independent of everything else unless you’re able to do some kind of control study, which you can’t.”

Cases were already on the decline when the mask mandate was issued, which makes it difficult to calculate how much impact it’s had.

Georgia cities with similar population counts to Columbus, such as Augusta, Athens, Macon and Savannah, have also implemented mask ordinances. Savannah’s initial order took effect July 1, becoming the first major Georgia city to pass a mandate.

Augusta and Athens soon followed suit. Commissioners in Macon-Bibb County implemented its mask ordinance in late August after Mayor Robert Reichert vetoed a previous resolution.

Data from the Georgia Department of Public Health shows cases peaked in Savannah’s Chatham County through the month of July before declining. Augusta-Richmond County’s data shows a similar pattern with a small uptick around mid-August before continuing its downward trend.

Macon-Bibb County had coronavirus data reporting issues in late August, but cases graphed by date of symptom onset show confirmed infections reaching their highest point in early-to-mid July before declining.

Athens-Clarke County is the outlier in the group of Georgia’s second-tier cities. Cases began declining near the end of July but surged again in September. The case increase coincided with the return of students to the University of Georgia.

Holiday weekends a major factor

One promising metric to look at for Muscogee is the number of new cases in the weeks following a holiday weekend, Kirkland said.

A week after the July 4th holiday weekend, the health department was already seeing spikes in newly reported cases. Following Labor Day weekend, however, the number of new cases has remained relatively constant. Kirkland cites this as a good sign that mask wearing, social distancing and other public health measures are working.

Josephine Gosa RN, MSN, FNP-BC, an epidemiologist at the West Central Health District, said she believes the mandate has been a factor in the continuation of case decline.

“If the infected person wears a mask, that is one barrier. If other people wear masks that is two barriers. If you social distance it’s a third barrier and if you practice hand hygiene infection control practices it’s a fourth and so on,” Gosa said. “It’s simple: the more barriers you have between people and the virus, the more protection we have to stop the spread.”

Another overall positive sign, Heiman said, is a decline in both the number of cases and the percentage of positive tests reported in Columbus. Over the past two months, the county’s seven-day test positivity average fell from around 20% to below 7%.

“It doesn’t mean that ‘oh we’re out of the woods. Let’s sit back and relax,’” he said. “It means you need to continue to double down on what you’re doing.”

‘We can’t let our foot off the gas now’

State health officials and public health experts said there are still several areas where they’d like to see improvement in Muscogee County’s coronavirus data.

Testing rates at Department of Public Health sites have significantly decreased in the past month. Kirkland said this could be due to increased confidence among the public that they have not been exposed to the virus, or that more people are turning to commercial testing sites.

Testing data for Georgia shows a statewide decline in testing, regardless of the performing lab, since mid-July. Decreased testing can make it harder to catch outbreaks before they become severe.

“The problem is — the less testing you do, the (less) likely you are able to identify a developing hotspot or outbreak that may not be obvious,” Heiman said.

Kirkland said she would also like to see the number of deaths decrease. As of Sept. 17, Muscogee County has had 160 deaths since the start of the pandemic. On Aug. 21, when the mask mandate was issued, there were 117 deaths.

Slowing community spread of the virus doesn’t impact the number of deaths immediately. It can take weeks or months for a vulnerable individual to catch the virus, become symptomatic, develop a severe case, and die. Sustained adherence to mask-wearing, social distancing, and other public health recommendations is the best way to bring the death rate down.

“We’re doing this (wearing masks) for ourselves, but also for those people who have other conditions that we really need to protect, so we could get the numbers down in the death column,” Kirkland said.

As holidays, return to classrooms, and other events approach, continuing to follow the mask mandate is the city’s best bet for preventing spikes from events that may bring groups of people together.

“We’ve had a spike after every holiday weekend, going back and forth to school. The Muscogee school district is getting (sic) to allow some children back in class, high school football has started, university has started back up,” Henderson said. “For all of these things, which could contribute to eroding the cushion we’ve got in hospitals, I think that’s where the mask is gonna help hold down any surge that we see as a result of these events.”

While Mayor Henderson has seen increased mask-wearing throughout the city, some restaurants and bars are not complying with other rules set forth by the Governor, such as encouraging social distancing and prohibiting congregation at bars, he said. Several local businesses also have not consented to the enforcement of the mask mandate on their premises, meaning customers are not required to wear face masks while there.

“I’d like to thank everyone for wearing masks, washing their hands, and social distancing,” Kirkland said. “Keep up the good work … we can’t let our foot off the gas now.”

Ledger-Enquirer writer Nick Wooten contributed to this report.