Muscogee County part of COVID ‘clusters’ identified by national study. What you need to know
The highly transmissible Delta variant has made its way to Georgia and public health experts warn that low vaccination rates in Muscogee County could make the region susceptible to a COVID-19 outbreak.
Researchers from Georgetown University have identified five regions in the southeast portion of the United States that are at a higher risk of transmitting the coronavirus if there is a lack of social distancing and masking, according to the report. Columbus is included in one of the clusters that spans across western Georgia, eastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.
Why Muscogee County being under-vaccinated matters
Shweta Bansal, associate professor of biology at Georgetown University, said cities in the clusters have low vaccination rates and are surrounded by communities that are under-vaccinated. Everyone in a low vaccination cluster is at greater risk because of interactions with unvaccinated individuals, she said.
“Unvaccinated individuals are efficient fuel — like dry wood — for the fire of future outbreaks and remain at high risk for infection and severe outcomes like hospitalization, long COVID and death,” Bansal said via email to the Ledger-Enquirer. “Vaccinated individuals are like soaked wood — while it can’t easily catch fire, if it’s surrounded by dry wood, the chances are much higher.”
Continued transmission of COVID-19 is what leads to new variants. While vaccinated residents are protected against severe outcomes of infection, there’s still a small risk of transmitting the virus to others and contributing to the emergence of variants, according to the Georgetown study.
The clusters that researchers identified, in addition to having lower-than-expected vaccination rates, make up a large population size, according to the report. Counties within the clusters are smaller than the average U.S. county, with populations of less than 100,000 people.
“The message for people who are vaccinated is that you have very high levels of protection, and you should be relieved that you have that protection,” said Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health. “It doesn’t mean that you don’t need to be aware of what’s going on around you, but the protection is holding up well.”
In order to identify areas that are under-vaccinated, researchers used data reported by states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to create a dashboard that provided the most accurate vaccination rates possible for counties.
This method presented some challenges for Georgia since data from the CDC did not always align with the Department of Public Health.
“The vaccination data for Georgia reported by the CDC does not fully count every vaccinated individual,” Bansal said. “In fact, the CDC only reports about 50% of the people vaccinated in Georgia as living in a Georgia county; they say that for the remaining vaccinated individuals, they do not know which county the person lives in.”
However, DPH data reports county residence for the vast majority of people vaccinated in Georgia and this is the data the Georgetown study used when analyzing the state, she said.
Researchers hope this analysis can be used to pinpoint locations that are susceptible to COVID hotspots and better estimate which communities need more vaccine resources.
As of July 20, 31% of Muscogee County residents are fully vaccinated, and 35% have at least one dose of the vaccine, according to DPH. Statewide, 40% of Georgia residents are fully vaccinated, and 44% have at least one dose.
What makes the Delta variant different from other strains?
The COVID-19 Delta variant has become the most common strain in the United States. As of July 20, about 36.6% of COVID-19 cases in Georgia are from the Delta variant, according to data from the CDC, up from 11.7% one week ago.
Jack Lockwood, public health consultant for the West Central Health District, said via email that DPH does not have county level data on how prevalent the Delta variant is in Georgia counties.
Pam Kirkland, spokesperson for the West Central Health District, said this variant is highly transmissible, which may contribute to increases in hospitalizations or deaths. She said those who are not vaccinated should remember masks and social distancincing guidelines if the number of Delta variant cases increases.
Heiman warned that since the Delta variant is spreading more than other strains, it is likely to become the dominant strain.
“Earlier on, we saw the U.K. variant, which is now called alpha, become dominant in the United Kingdom and then ultimately come to the U.S. and Georgia — it became the dominant strain here,” Heiman said. “And now what we’re seeing is that Delta is following the same pattern.”
The CDC has classified Delta as a variant of concern. This means the variant shows evidence of increased transmission and the severity of the disease is greater.
As of July 20, Muscogee County had 108 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people in the last two weeks, according to DPH.
“The bottom line is that vaccination is the barrier between another COVID surge and more variants emerging,” Lockwood said. “Unfortunately, Georgia can expect COVID numbers to grow if people remain unvaccinated or skip their second dose of vaccine.”
This story was originally published July 21, 2021 at 9:00 AM.
