Donald Trump's Approval Rating Implodes With Core Demographic

A new national poll shows President Donald Trump's approval rating collapsing among independent voters, marking his weakest showing with the political middle since returning to office in that particular series.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.”

Why It Matters

Independent voters often decide close elections, and their sharp move away from Trump comes as the 2026 midterms approach.

At the same time, the Iran war and its knock-on effects on gas prices and everyday costs are keeping economic anxiety front and center for voters.

What To Know

New polling suggests Trump's support among independent voters has deteriorated to historic lows, raising fresh questions about his political footing heading into a crucial election cycle.

Yahoo News/YouGov’s latest survey shows that 70 percent of independents disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president, with 27 percent approving, for a net approval rating of minus 43-the worst result this polling series has ever recorded for him.

This erosion among independents comes despite support from inside the president’s core MAGA base remaining strong, with recent NBC News polling showing unanimous approval among self‑identified MAGA Republicans and roughly 90 percent of MAGA‑aligned voters backing the administration's Iran‑related strikes.

Brett Loyd, a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, a nonpartisan organization that focuses on representing and organizing independent voters, who now make up a significant share of the U.S. electorate, said the Yahoo News/YouGov figure on independent voters represents a point of no return for most presidents.

"A -43 net approval among independents is essentially the ‘Event Horizon' of political polling-it is incredibly rare to see a sitting president fall this far and actually climb back," he told Newsweek.

Loyd added that once presidents lose the political center, recovery becomes exceedingly difficult.

"Historically, once you lose the center, you can’t win them back with more ‘combat and chaos,'” he said.

Trump Hits Polling Lows Across Two Issues

Trump’s overall job approval in the poll stood at 38 percent, unchanged from the previous survey, while disapproval edged up to 59 percent, a one‑point increase.

Beneath those topline numbers, however, views turned sharply more negative when respondents were asked about specific issues.

Economic confidence has weakened substantially. Trump's net approval on the economy fell to minus 29, which Yahoo said is the lowest economic rating the president has ever received in this polling series-even worse than during the peak of the COVID‑19 crisis in his first term.

Cost‑of‑living pressures appear to be driving much of the decline: disapproval of Trump's handling of living costs reached 67 percent, compared with 26 percent who approved, marking his weakest performance on that issue to date, according to Yahoo.

Gas prices remained another significant vulnerability. On that question, Trump posted a net approval of minus 39, underscoring how fuel costs continue to resonate with voters amid global instability.

Polling Methodology

The survey was conducted by YouGov for Yahoo News using a nationally representative sample of 1,699 U.S. adults.

Interviews were carried out online between March 12 and March 16, 2026, and responses were weighted to reflect the U.S. adult population by gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification, and current voter registration status.

Demographic benchmarks were drawn from the 2019 American Community Survey, with party identification weighted to an estimated electorate of 31 percent Democratic and 32 percent Republican.

The poll's margin of error was approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Stark Shift in the Wrong Direction for Trump

The latest results mark a dramatic shift from a year earlier.

In March 2025, Trump's net approval among independents stood at minus 11, based on a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted between March 20 and March 24, 2025, among 1,677 U.S. adults. That survey carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

At the time, overall approval was 44 percent, with 50 percent disapproving, resulting in a net approval of minus 6.

Among independents specifically, 42 percent approved of Trump's job performance while 53 percent disapproved. Taken together, the shift amounts to a 32‑point collapse in net approval among independents over the course of a year.

Loyd, whose organization aims to serve as a research and outreach hub that highlights issues important to independents and holds elected officials from both major parties accountable for their priorities, said that change reflects more than temporary dissatisfaction.

"Last year, there was a glimmer of ‘maybe he'll just fix the costs,'" he told Newsweek. "Independents have since traded in that hope for pragmatism for the reality of a base‑energizing ego trip, and the buyer's remorse is showing up in the data as a 70 percent disapproval rating."

He warned that increasingly partisan strategies can further alienate the middle.

"The more partisan the ‘base energizing' efforts, the more you risk independent support," Loyd said.

What People Are Saying

President Donald Trump told the New York Post of approval ratings tied to the Iran war: "I think that the polling is very good, but I don't care about polling. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago."

White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in a statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.

“The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

A White House official previously told Newsweek: “Polling shows President Trump's decision to launch Operation Epic Fury has Americans' support-with MAGA and Republicans strongly supporting it.

“Despite some online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the President's decision-and many legacy media outlets eagerly highlighting their comments to try and sow division-the MAGA base is not wavering one bit. These commentators claiming this will somehow fracture the president's support are not backed by or reflected in the polling data.”

Brett Loyd said: “When seven out of ten Independents tell you to take a hike, it's no longer a ‘bad week' in the polls. This isn't volatility; it's a durable rejection of the ‘Us vs. Them' partisan politics this executive branch has really leaned into of late, and Independents aren’t buying.”

What Happens Next

Upcoming economic data, shifts in energy prices, and developments tied to the Iran conflict are likely to shape public opinion in the months ahead.

With midterm campaigns set to accelerate, the president's ability to stabilize support beyond his base may prove decisive.

In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center-it’s not “both sides,” it’s sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. Help keep the center courageous. Join today.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published March 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM.