Analysis: Lebanon set for complex post-truce negotiations with Israel

BEIRUT, Lebanon, April 17 (UPI) -- The Israel-Hezbollah war, temporarily halted by a 10-day cease-fire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, opened a diplomatic process that would engage Lebanon in complex and sensitive negotiations to end the conflict, address Hezbollah's weapons and avoid being forced into an imposed peace.

The truce came into effect after midnight Thursday, pausing 46 days of intensive Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon and a ground advance in the southern region that have killed more than 2,294 people, injured 7,544 and displaced in excess of 1.2 million since March 2.

Hezbollah, which battled advancing Israeli forces and fired missiles into Israel, lost an unspecified number of fighters, with Israel claiming the toll reached 1,700.

Shortly after, Trump said Washington was close to reaching a deal with Iran, which in turn said the Strait of Hormuz was "completely" open to commercial shipping for the duration of its cease-fire with Washington now that a truce is in place in Lebanon.

The United States, however, said it will maintain its blockade of Iran for the present.

Iran sought to claim full credit for the temporary cease-fire in Lebanon, reportedly linking it to its conditions in ongoing negotiations with Washington. Hezbollah officials echoed the claim, saying they had been informed by Tehran about the agreement hours earlier.

The truce came as the culmination of interventions from various sides, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It materialized, however, after Trump intervened to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting it even before securing Cabinet approval.

The announcement snowballed into a broader diplomatic push, with Trump praising Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and saying he had responded to his cease-fire request. He also invited Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House in the coming weeks for talks on a lasting peace, pledging "no more killing" or Israeli strikes on Lebanon and urging Hezbollah to "act nicely."

An attempt by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to persuade the Lebanese president to hold a phone call with Netanyahu failed, with Lebanon saying it was premature and would need to be preceded by several steps.

With the United States' recent policy shift after years of neglect and mounting pressure, Lebanon will have to demonstrate its ability to implement the new, U.S.-brokered agreement with Israel.

This includes upholding the cease-fire, asserting its sovereignty and taking meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out "hostile activities" against Israel.

In other words, it is about the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, a task that Lebanon couldn't undertake due to fears that confrontation with the group would trigger a new civil war.

Riad Kahwaji, a Middle East security analyst, said that Trump's personal and direct engagement in supporting the Lebanon-Israel peace track was "a good move" for Lebanon, and that failure to uphold commitments will come with "a big price."

"Lebanese officials would have a lot to lose if they don't live up to their promises and commitments and to the expectations of the U.S. president for his personal intervention to help Lebanon get out of this big mess," Kahwaji told UPI.

He was referring to Lebanon's reliance on the United States for arming its military and for facilitating aid from the World Bank and other international organizations.

Most importantly, Lebanon cannot afford another war with Israel, which was again granted the "inherent right to self-defense" in the new truce accord, meaning it can act freely and without restraint against any Hezbollah threat, as it did under the Nov. 27 cease-fire agreement.

That specifically led to Hezbollah resuming fighting March 2, citing Israel's continued attacks and the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the U.S.-led war on Iran.

The new cease-fire and its possible extension largely depend on Israel's commitment by refraining to act "in self-defense," especially in the absence of any mechanism to determine or confirm a Hezbollah threat. The Iran-backed group also should be subject to restraint.

More critical than the cease-fire will be the peace negotiations, with Israel and Lebanon pursuing different objectives.

Fares Boueiz, Lebanon's former foreign minister, said Israel is pushing Lebanon "under fire" into negotiations that could lead to a full peace accord and normalization, while Lebanon seeks the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and the reinstatement of the 1949 armistice agreement.

Boueiz, who was involved in the 1991 Madrid peace talks, said such talks would require the United States to act as "an honest and fair broker" with a stronger, more effective role, as well as the willingness to pressure Israel to "achieve a real agreement."

He cast doubt on Lebanon's ability to disarm Hezbollah during the 10-day cease-fire, saying this cannot be done "by force, in one go, and in a short time."

And he warned that the Lebanese state must "prove its credibility;" otherwise, it will face "additional conditions and requests for guarantees."

One option is for the Lebanese president is to engage in "a strategic understanding" with Hezbollah, conducted "behind the scenes and even secretly," regarding the group's weapons and negotiations with Israel, Boueiz said.

"The president should be frank with Hezbollah. Without these negotiations, displaced people will not return to southern Lebanon, and the country risks losing the region indefinitely as fighting and the economic siege persist," he said.

Hezbollah will then have to decide whether to tie its fate to Iran or distance itself, gaining a greater margin of freedom and agreeing to place its weapons in the state's hands as a strong bargaining card in negotiations with Israel.

"Israel will seek maximum gains, and there is no doubt that the negotiations will be bitter, harsh,and very difficult. However, Lebanon has no alternative," Boueiz said.

The Lebanese president appeared determined to "save Lebanon" and to "work for lasting agreements," affirming that, for the first time in 50 years, the country is negotiating on its own behalf and making its own decisions.

"We are no longer a card in anyone's pocket, nor a battlefield for anyone's wars, and we will never become one, again," Aoun said in a national address Friday. "Between suicide and prosperity, my people and I choose prosperity and reject suicide," he said in an indirect reference to Hezbollah's war activities.

Aoun promised to secure Israel's withdrawal from occupied areas of southern Lebanon, release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel, return of displaced residents to their villages and reassertion of full state authority over the country.

It will not be an easy ride, as Hezbollah still rejects direct negotiations with Israel and refuses to relinquish its weapons.

However, Kahwaji contended Hezbollah emerged weaker from the war, during which Israel seized additional Lebanese territory, demolished more villages and barred its inhabitants from returning home.

He said that, despite its efforts to portray itself as "a victor," Hezbollah now sees itself as facing an "unprecedented existential threat" as a military organization, not only from Israeli attacks but also because Lebanon is breaking with it and no longer providing the cover, support and lifeline it requires.

Although the militant group faces growing rejection among Lebanese society, it continues to enjoy support within parts of its Shiite community after the latest war.

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This story was originally published April 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM.