Starmer awaits fate after polls close in crucial UK elections

LONDON - Keir Starmer is awaiting the results of one of the most consequential rounds of local elections in recent British history, a vote that could determine his future as prime minister and shape national policy in Europe's second-largest economy.

Polls have closed across England, Scotland and Wales, capping an intense period of campaigning for control of 172 English councils and the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, among other races. While the first returns were expected in the early hours of Friday, a full picture of the results might not come into focus until late in the U.K. day.

Besides delivering a verdict on Starmer's rocky tenure as prime minister, the election will show whether insurgent parties such as Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Zack Polanski's Greens have solidified their recent gains in opinion polls. Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats are also looking to pick up seats, while Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives are poised to continue their recent string of losses.

If preelection forecasts prove accurate, the results will underscore an epochal fracturing of British politics. Reform and the Greens appear set to make the strongest gains at the expense of Labour and the Tories, the duopoly that's dominated Westminster for more than a century.

Roughly 5,000 council seats across England, of which Labour currently controls about half, were up for grabs. Ahead of the vote, Tory peer and local elections expert Robert Hayward projected Labour would lose 1,850 seats, with Reform expected to gain 1,550 and the Greens winning 500, especially in the capital, London.

Voters also cast ballots for representatives in the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd. Labour has reconciled itself to losing to John Swinney's Scottish National Party north of the border. In Wales, where Labour has held control ever since the devolved parliament was created in 1999, it could trail far behind Rhun ap Iorwerth's Plaid Cymru.

A poor result in the elections has long been floated by Labour members of Parliament critical of Starmer as a possible catalyst for a challenge to replace him as the party's leader. Allies of Starmer rivals such as former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting have said they would decide whether to launch a bid after assessing the fallout.

Britain's long-term borrowing costs hit a 28-year high earlier this week, amid renewed worries about political instability. One concern for investors is that the results could prompt Labour to adopt a looser fiscal policy than the one so far maintained by Starmer and his chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves.

Starmer has been struggling with low approval ratings through much of his 22 months as prime minister. Speculation about his future has surged amid weeks of inquiry into the disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the U.S. despite questions about his ties to China, Russia and the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Labour MPs told Bloomberg that Starmer's position could become untenable if he faces a Cabinet mutiny and a mass withdrawal of support from his rank-and-file back-benchers. Allies of Rayner and Streeting say they are poised to step in if the pressure on the prime minister gets too much.

The premier is planning a rearguard action to defend his position, urging his party not to descend into infighting and announcing a series of policy moves, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity about plans that aren't yet finalized. Starmer will have King Charles III formally announce the next phase of the government's legislative program on Wednesday, helping to lock in the agenda.

Starmer's message will be that he has a five-year mandate from the electorate and that Labour shouldn't make the mistake of their Tory predecessors, who cycled through four premiers in five years at the expense of advancing new policies, the person said.

"This government will reshape our nation," Starmer promised at the weekend in an op-ed in the Observer newspaper. "Over the coming weeks, through the king's speech and beyond, we will set out our agenda of radical reform – with activist, interventionist government building a stronger and fairer country."

Also waiting in the wings is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who currently lacks the necessary seat in Parliament to seek the premier's job. One Labour official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Burnham was the preferred candidate for many MPs who may opt to wait until the mayor secures a seat in a by-election before moving against Starmer .

One Labour MP said there was more than enough discontent on the party's back benches for a challenger to find the requisite 81 nominations to launch a challenge against Starmer. The person said there was a 50/50 chance of one stepping forward.

Another MP said a contest might not be triggered because each of the major contenders to replace Starmer have impediments to making a challenge. The person said that the risk of another, less-discussed contender stepping into the race may be underpriced.

(Lucy White, Isobel Finkel, Iain Marlow, Jacob Reid and Alex Morales contributed to this report.)

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This story was originally published May 7, 2026 at 10:41 PM.