What happens if neither Kemp nor Abrams get a majority in the Georgia governor’s race?

With polls showing the three-candidate field deadlocked, Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp could be vying again next month in a December 4 runoff election if no one gets more than 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday.

Former Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Georgia, said both campaigns have probably already prepared runoff contingency plans. He should know. Chambliss endured a runoff in 2008 against Democrat Jim Martin after they failed to win over 50 percent.

“Nobody wants to be in a runoff,” Chambliss said. “It’s different in a runoff. It’s harder to motivate people in a runoff than it is in the general election.”

Kemp and Abrams insist that they’re working toward a final outcome on Tuesday night, not a Round Two in December.

“We are preparing to win on Tuesday,” Kemp, Georgia’s secretary of state, said at a campaign stop in Columbus Monday. “The people of Georgia, they’re the polls and I don’t believe a lot of these polls that are out there.”

“I am focused on winning this election outright on Nov. 6.” Abrams said on Oct. 25 during a campaign stop in Columbus.

The political stakes were high in 2008. Senate Republicans were seeking to keep Democrats from winning 60 seats, which would be enough to stop any filibuster. Chambliss, who won 49.8 percent in the November election, defeated Martin 58 percent to 42 percent in the runoff. The turnout was well below general election numbers.

Chambliss said that if Kemp and Abrams wind up in a runoff, they shouldn’t focus on trying to appeal to voters who chose the third candidate, Libertarian Ted Metz, over them in the general election.

“Those people aren’t likely to go back to the polls – if they aren’t going to vote for you in the first place, they’re not going to vote for you the second time around,” he said. “Try to figure out areas where you were either weak or where the turnout was not where it should have been.”

Chambliss said money won’t be a problem for a runoff campaign for Abrams or Kemp, who combined raised over $56 million for the primaries and the general election.

“I remember in that 30-day period we raised and spent over $5 million,” the former senator said. “Nobody could believe we were able to raise that much, but actually the money was coming it so fast we couldn’t get it deposit quick enough..”

If this race goes into overtime, expect the big money to flow into Georgia, said Brian Robinson, former director of communications for Gov. Nathan Deal. Robinson owns a public affairs and communications consulting firm and worked with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, whom Kemp defeated in a Republican primary runoff.

“I can’t begin to put a number on it, but it will be a lot of money,” Robinson said. “... I suspect both of them will be on TV, especially in Atlanta, immediately. They will be spending $400,000 a week just on Atlanta TV.”

Robinson pointed to a possible issue for Kemp in a runoff. Because he is the Secretary of State he would be unable to raise money, according to state law, while the General Assembly is in session. Deal has called a special session for the week after the general election.

“It will probably only be a few days, but it will be a disadvantage,” Robinson said.

On the eve of Tuesday’s election, the governor’s race is too close to call. The RealClearPolitics average shows Kemp leading Abrams 48.5 percent to 45.7 percent, essentially a tie given the margins of error in the polls. Nearly 2.1 million Georgians voted in the three-week early-voting period,. which ended on Friday.

If there is a runoff, there would be a brief early voting period.

Since the early polls closed last week, President Barack Obama stumped for Abrams in metro Atlanta and President Donald Trump boosted Kemp in Macon.

Trey Hood III, a political science professor and director of the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia, said an Abrams-Kemp runoff is a possible but unlikely scenario.

“The Libertarian candidate in our poll is around 2 percent,” said Hood, whose center does polling for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “If the Libertarian candidate gets 2 percent, it would have to be a squeaker for that (runoff) to happen. It would have to be, like, essentially a tie – 49 to 49, something like that. It could happen, but we haven’t had a lot of runoffs for statewide office, typically.”

Kemp pointed to inaccurate polls in the 2017 6th Congressional District seat special election, when Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in a tight race.

“We have seen the same thing in close races, in Gov. Deal’s re-election and David Perdue’s victory over Michelle Nunn,” Kemp said. “... If our folks show up on Tuesday, we are going to win without a runoff.” Perdue, a Republican, beat Nunn in 2014.

Tuesday’s results in Columbus will not be certified by the local Elections Board until Nov. 13, a week after the voting. Those results and the ones from 158 other Georgia counties then have to be taken to the Secretary of State’s office for certification statewide.. That certification could not happen until Nov. 15.

“Once you factor in the two holidays — Veterans Day and Thanksgiving — and everything else falls into place, there will be only one week of early voting, which would be Nov. 26-30,” said Nancy Boren, executive director of elections in Muscogee County.

This story was originally published November 5, 2018 at 4:43 PM.