Georgia hasn’t reached peak in coronavirus deaths per day yet, COVID-19 model suggests
New projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggest Georgia may not have reached its peak deaths per day or peak hospital capacity due to the novel coronavirus.
The model projects Georgia will report 56 coronavirus deaths on its peak of April 29, and hospitals will reach peak resource use on April 28. The same model predicted that Georgia reached peak deaths on April 7 and hospital resource use on April 15. These projections change over time as new data is reported.
The peak death projection tracks the overall death trend, marking when reported deaths start to decline steadily. It may not be the day where the state has currently reported its highest number of deaths, according to IHME.
After April 29, the model predicts Georgia’s daily coronavirus deaths will begin to decline steadily. Georgia reported its most coronavirus deaths in a day on April 7 with 100.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported last week that Gov. Brian Kemp greeted the model’s old prediction that Georgia had reached its daily death and hospital capacity peaks as “great news.” The Governor’s Office did not respond to McClatchy when asked about the newest prediction.
Georgia is projected to report 2,254 total deaths as of early August, which marks a decline from the IHME’s estimates of more than 3,700 deaths in a previous update. However, the new number is an increase from a more recent projection almost a week ago.
“Since our release (April 22), Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Georgia had the largest increases in cumulative COVID-19 deaths projected through the first wave,” according to the Institute’s latest update.
The projections show the state does not have a shortage of hospital beds or ICU beds. The state is projected to need a total of 498 ventilators. Gov. Kemp told reporters earlier this month that the state has more than 1,000 ventilators.
The IHME model has been previously cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, and other federal officials repeatedly over the past several weeks.
However, the model does have its critics.
“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting COVID-19 deaths, said epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health according to American health-oriented news site Stat.
It’s unclear how Kemp’s announcement to ease coronavirus restrictions will affect future estimates.
IHME used social distancing policies as of April 21 to help make their latest model. According to the projections, Georgia implemented four out of six social distancing measures: mass gathering restrictions, initial business closure, the closing of educational facilities and a stay-at-home order.
However, Kemp has allowed barber shops, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys and other similar businesses to reopen as of Friday.
IHME also recommends Georgia maintain its coronavirus restrictions until June 22, assuming the state has containment strategies that include increased testing and contact tracing. As of noon Saturday, Georgia reported 22,695 cases and 904 deaths.
This story was originally published April 24, 2020 at 3:32 PM.