Rare, late-year Tropical Storm Sara brings needed rain to parts of Georgia, Alabama
A rare November tropical storm is going to bring a lot of needed rain to parts of Georgia this week, forecasters say.
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to soon move through the Gulf of Mexico and bring 2 to 4 inches of rain in southwest Georgia, an area that has gone through a drought since Hurricane Helene. The storm isn’t expected to become a hurricane, according to Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert for AccuWeather.
“Had it stayed in the Caribbean it would have likely become a hurricane and rapidly intensified,” DaSilva said.
What causes tropical storms in November?
On Nov. 12, waters in the Caribbean Sea were around 84 degrees, up about 2 degrees from their normal November temperature, helping to spawn tropical depression Sara. This is the third tropical development for the month of November and experts predict will likely be the last before the season ends Nov. 30.
Sara unleashed a catastrophic amount of water in Honduras, with up to 40 inches of rain, according to DaSilva.
Human-made climate change made the ocean temperature where Sara formed 800 times more likely, according to Climate Central, a nonprofit organization of climate scientists who use past data to compare and understand current ocean heat waves.
After moving through the Yucatan Peninsula, DaSilva is confident Sara will remain a tropical storm as it moves across the gulf.
How often do November hurricanes happen?
November hurricanes are possible, but they account for less than 5% of the total hurricanes all season.
“In more recent times we have seen more storms in November, and that is because of sea surface temperatures,” DaSilva said.
Despite sea surface temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico a few degrees above normal, DaSilva is confident the wind sheer from the north is going to keep the storm from developing into a hurricane.
“It will merge with a cold front and help enhance moisture,” he said. “It’s going to be sucked northward by a cold front.”
The hurricane expert said this won’t look like a tropical system, but will bring heavy rain along the Gulf Coast.
“The heaviest rain will be south of the Georgia border and Alabama and Mississippi could see some flooding,” he said.
Areas surrounding Hurricane Helene’s path just 45 days ago need more rain.
Why Georgia needs the rain
Southwest Georgia will get 2 to 4 inches of rain starting Tuesday afternoon and carrying into Wednesday, DaSilva said.
When Sara began developing in the Caribbean, over half of Georgia entered into a moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The parched part of the state is southwest and the northern half of Georgia, touching up to 6 million people.
“The expected rainfall will help the current dryness (mainly due to depleted soil moisture) across the State, especially for the moderate drought areas in NW and SW GA,” Bill Murphey, Georgia state climatologist, said in an email. “However, some isolated heavier amounts could fall in a few areas in far western GA, while other areas could get lighter amounts, so will have to see how it plays out.”
In Columbus, the amount of rain received in the past 30 days is 16% below normal, according to Murphy. November has been 9.7 degrees above normal, adding to the dryness.
