A.J. Brown Trade: Patriots Shouldn't Overpay
On the eve of potentially trading for wide receiver A.J. Brown, the New England Patriots should be asking themselves: "What would Bill do?" I can tell you what Bill Belichick would not do: He would not trade a first-round pick for an aging receiver when the team on the other end gave up its leverage months ago. Brown is worth closer to a third-round pick at this point. The Patriots may have to offer a second to ward off other suitors, but that's as far as they should go even if they risk losing the talented receiver.
The Philadelphia Eagles had to wait until after June 1 to execute a trade, in order to drastically lower Brown's cap hit. If the Patriots promised either a 2027 or '28 first-round pick back in April, they could use the bizarre cap rules to their advantage and say they changed their mind. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport alleges that the trade is not as easy to execute as everyone assumed all offseason.
"I don't know that it's like snap your fingers and the deal is done," Rapoport said on Wednesday. "Because the two sides are where they had been, which is the Eagles wanting a first-round pick in 2027. The Patriots, the most likely destination - we'll see if someone else arises - not being willing to give up a first-round pick as of right now. That means they're not particularly close, and there's a chance this could drag on for the foreseeable future."
Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman has no problem channeling his inner-Belichick and going for the best deal at all costs. He will try to create a market - whether it's real or imagined. But the teams that Roseman could call - the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills - likely won't give up a first either. And even if Roseman says keeping Brown is a possibility, the Eagles built up their receiver room for an inevitable exit. Multiple players have basically said goodbye publicly, and the Eagles traded up in the first round to draft USC receiver Makai Lemon. For Brown to come back would be even more awkward than Maxx Crosby returning to the Raiders after failing his physical in Baltimore.
While Brown has had a fantastic career, he will turn 29 on June 30. He averaged a career-low 12.9 yards per reception last season and Pro Football Focus gave him a career-worst 83.4 grade. Brown supporters will point to the broken offense in Philly last season and quarterback Jalen Hurts' ineffectiveness. Even if Brown returns to his elite level of play in '26, how long will it last? Most receivers hit a cliff at 30, especially explosive physical ones like Brown. Even surefire Hall of Famer Julio Jones, who played with a similar style, started to decline after the season in which he turned 29.
If this is a one-year rental, that is even more reason for the Pats to hold on to their first-round picks. NFL history has proven that going from a Super Bowl runner-up to a champion is typically not a straight line. New England got through the AFC playoff field without facing the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens and played against a backup quarterback in Denver in the AFC title game. Are they really on the brink of a championship?
The Patriots sit behind K.C., Buffalo and Baltimore in the Vegas odds to come out of the AFC. That might change if they got Brown. They desperately need an upgrade at receiver. But they are projected to have Will Campbell starting at left tackle after his total collapse in the postseason and 35-year-old Morgan Moses or rookie Caleb Lomu at right tackle. If they have trouble protecting quarterback Drake Maye, Brown will get less targets - and we know where that leads. If the Patriots are sure that the '27 or '28 pick was going to be No. 31 or No. 32, then they could consider offering it. But there is a real chance they miss the playoffs and it ends in the top 15.
Long term, New England sits in a great position; selling out for this season is a mistake. Maye will have the same advantage as Tom Brady - a perennially flawed AFC East. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have problematic owners and the Bills are quietly getting old in key positions. The Patriots have a chance for a decade of dominance, especially if quarterback Josh Allen has enough of Buffalo and demands a trade.
Sometimes swapping a first-round pick for a receiver works out, but those players tend to be younger. Here are some of the successes over the last decade:
•Brandin Cooks to the Patriots in 2017: 24 years old
• Cooks to the Rams in 2018: 25 years old
• Amari Cooper to the Cowboys in ‘18: 24 years old
• Stefon Diggs to the Bills in 2020: 26 years old
• Brown to the Eagles in 2022: 24 years old
The Dolphins' acquisition of Tyreek Hill, then 28, for a first-rounder was a notable exception … he had two tremendous seasons. But Miami did not win anything significant and Hill's physical skills are unique even among elite pass-catchers.
New England pulled off one of the greatest receiver trades of all time in 2007, when it got Randy Moss for a fourth-round pick. Moss was 30 and went on to set the single-season record with 23 touchdowns. That deal was a perfect example of Belichick using his leverage, knowing the Raiders were too much of a mess to utilize a player like Moss.
Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf must dig deep and be as Belichick-ian as possible. If New England and Philly had a handshake agreement to trade Brown for a first-rounder, throw it out the window. The Eagles have nowhere else to go. Roseman is used to getting his way and wins almost every trade he makes. If the Patriots decide to be like Bill, they will end up with Brown and not have to hurt their future to do it.
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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 7:45 AM.