Analysis: How Auburn could match Georgia’s strengths and upset the Bulldogs
Derrick Brown stood and watched from behind the end zone nearest Auburn’s student section as the Tigers offense took the field. The Tigers trailed Georgia 38-37 after a furious rally from the Bulldogs that saw the visiting team erase a 27-7 deficit. The Tigers faced fourth-and-18 with around 30 seconds left. You know what happened next.
Then-quarterback Nick Marshall stepped up into the pocket and launched a prayer of a throw to Ricardo Louis, who ran a deep post route and found himself in double coverage. Marshall arguably made the wrong throw — the senior had sophomore receiver Sammie Coates streaking wide open near midfield. Two Georgia safeties jumped for the interception and tipped it right into the path of Louis, who scored the game-winner with 25 seconds left. A “miracle at Jordan-Hare,” the late Rod Bramblett exclaimed on the Auburn IMG radio broadcast.
“That was my first-ever visit,” Brown said. “I remember it like it was yesterday.”
That was the first of two miracles at Jordan-Hare in a three-week period that season (the other being the Kick Six). The stakes are different this time around and the thought of both teams scoring more than 30 points sounds laughable, but likely the final November Auburn-Georgia game (3:30 p.m. EST, CBS) might be decided in a few key areas.
Let’s start with the obvious one: No. 13 Auburn’s interior defense, led by the aforementioned Brown, now a senior playing in his final game against the fourth-ranked Bulldogs (8-1, 5-1 SEC).
Georgia’s offense, though it features playmakers at just about every position, has shown a tendency to go quite vanilla this year. A sequence of run-run-pass became routine and some play-calling (and execution) raised some eyebrows in late-game situations against South Carolina.
Bulldogs running back D’Andre Swift is likely going to get a lot of carries, and most of them will likely be runs up the middle. It’s whether the Tigers (7-2, 4-2 SEC) can stuff some of those runs and get the Bulldogs into passing situations on third down that will determine how much success the defense will see.
Against SEC opponents, Brown and defensive end Marlon Davidson have combined for 10 quarterback hurries on third down this year, according to Sports Info Solutions. Auburn’s opponents have converted around 30% of their third downs.
Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm, on the flip side, is 35-of-57 for 424 yards on third down against SEC teams. Grad transfer Lawrence Cager leads the Bulldogs in receiving on third down.
Javon Wims was the last big-bodied target to be a go-to for Fromm, but Cager has become even more of a staple. If healthy, Cager will be the target who could go over 100 yards and carry the Bulldogs’ offense again. He suffered a re-injury of a shoulder ailment against Missouri and didn’t return, though Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart said he could have returned had the team needed him.
“You have to make him uncomfortable; he has a very good command of his offense,” Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said of Fromm. “He doesn’t hold the ball long and knows where to go with it. He can throw the ball away and when he has to, he can be a running threat, too; I think he is a complete guy. We have played him numerous times, playing here two years ago as a true freshman and he showed a lot of toughness.
“I believe he is one of the best.”
If Auburn wants to upset the Bulldogs, the Tigers offense will need to show some life against a better opponent, something it has yet to really do this year. It’ll be tough pickings against a loaded Bulldogs defense.
Defensively, Georgia prides itself on run defense and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season — the only team to do so in FBS. The Bulldogs also allow only 74.6 rushing yards per game, which is fourth-best in the country. So the pressure will be on Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to deliver. He’s played his best at home this year, but the Bulldogs defense is a different animal.
Georgia has rotated at cornerback between Tyson Campbell (who was out for five games with turf toe) and D.J. Daniel, who has given up an 87.50% adjusted catch rate this year (67% on third-and-7 or longer), according to Sports Info Solutions. At the STAR position, Divaad Wilson and Mark Webb have also been burnt on the deep pass.
“If you wait too long to get into a rhythm, at that point, the game may be out of hand,” Nix said. “We’ve just got to start fast, and complete passes when they’re there, and just move the ball and score points.”
