Hope springs in fourth year of Braves’ two-year rebuild

Welcome to Year Four of the Atlanta Braves’ two-year building plan. Or, as it’s unofficially known within the confidential confines of the front office, Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, Plan D, Plan E Plan F. They’ve already gone through two dry erase boards in the planning room.

Even so, it is spring, so the optimism chart peaks. If that’s not mandated somewhere then it should be.

The future looks brighter, and not just long-term, but something fairly close.

Granted, it’s hard to look at this roster and make a strong case that this will be the break-through year fans were promised would happen last year as management tried to justify abandoning Turner Field and abandoning any hint of competitiveness by trading away Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel, Alex Wood and others. There are too many holes in the pitching staff, including the lack of a true ace in the rotation and an established shut-down closer in the bullpen. Even if Julio Teheran rediscovers his All-Star form and Arodys Viscaino finally latches hold of the closer job, there’s still not enough pitching to think this team could challenge Washington for the National League East title, or even scrounge up enough wins to grab the second wild-card playoff spot.

But there are two things to remember, two things that breathe hope into this season.

One is that baseball remains the most unpredictable of all major sports. This much is almost a given: Despite all of the offseason analyses and projections, at least one team will defy analytics and surpass expectations.

There’s no reason the Braves can’t be that team this year, just as they were in 1991.

The other is that progress isn’t always measured in wins. Yeah, that sounds like a cop-out, but it’s true. Take the 1990 Braves. They lost 97 games. But John Smoltz and Tom Glavine continued their development, Steve Avery went through his learning curve and David Justice had an unreal second half to win National League Rookie of the Year. Smoltz, Glavine and Avery combined for 52 wins the next year.

Maybe the third reason for hope is that John Coppollela is no longer around to unload major league talent for more prospects that may or may not make it past Double-A. Alex Anthopoulos, hired from the Dodgers after Coppolella was fired and subsequently banned from baseball for cheating, brings in a fresh perspective as the club’s general manager.

So, for now at least, let’s ignore the statistics and statistics and give a moment to hope.

To be clear, this season cannot produce 90-plus losses again and be considered a success. Anything that doesn’t approach .500 would be discouraging.

But all this team has to do to scrape together 81 wins is avoid the horrible stretches that doomed the past two seasons. In 2016 it was an 18-46 start that obscured the 50-47 finish. Last year, the Braves somehow managed a 45-45 start even after losing six of their first seven games. But a 12-27 collapse in July and August rendered all of their good work irrelevant.

The starting rotation has a chance to be at least adequate. Teheran is a two-time All-Star and, at 27, should be hitting the prime of his career.

Mike Foltynewicz still possesses enormous talent and appears to be maturing. Consider this comparison. Foltynewicz has 23 wins in 65 starts (35.4 percent) through his first three seasons as a starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta had 19 wins through 58 starts (32.8 percent) through his third season as a starter.

Brandon McCarthy, acquired from the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp trade, should be an adequate stop-gap until some of the young arms grow up.

That leaves two spots and a long list of hopefuls: Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and maybe even Matt Wisler, who seems to have rediscovered his slider and his confidence.

That should be enough to scrape together a dozen more wins than last year and at least have a winning season.

If they can manage that, they could at least hold our attention long enough to get us to football season.

This story was originally published March 10, 2018 at 3:19 PM with the headline "Hope springs in fourth year of Braves’ two-year rebuild."