Starting Acuna in minors is a financial move, not developmental
Sure, I get it. Sort of get it.
I get the financial aspect of having Ronald Acuna start the season in the minor leagues. It’s a fiscal no-brainer, actually.
Holding him back for two weeks on the front end could save the club who knows how many millions down the road by pushing his free agency eligibility back a whole year. Just in today’s dollars alone, it could save them some $30 million a year if Acuna becomes the player everyone — and I mean EVERYONE — in baseball expects him to be.
That could be $30 million to spend on two or three other key players.
The greater cost may not be the money. They would risk losing Acuna altogether to free agency, much the same way the Baltimore Orioles risk losing Manny Machado after this season because the Orioles brought him up at age 19 for 51 games in 2012.
There’s no sense losing Acuna a year early or having to pay to keep him when this year’s team isn’t even trying to win.
But that’s exactly the problem.
The Braves aren’t even trying to win this season. They could have pursued some free agents who would have made them instantly competitive. Guys like third baseman Todd Frazier or starting pitcher Alex Cobb or relievers Steve Cishek or Matt Albers. All pretty affordable guys.
Even without adding those players, why give up on this year when the team hasn’t even broken camp? This team could make the playoffs.
Look at the five teams that contended for the four wild card spots last year — Arizona, Colorado and Milwaukee in the National League, New York and Minnesota in the American League. Of those five, only the Yankees had a winning record the year before (84-78). The Twins were 59-103. The other three averaged 72 wins in 2016.
The Braves won 72 games last year despite losing Freddie Freeman for two months with a fractured wrist and the team basically playing out September just trying to look at some prospects.
Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz together could easily be 10 games better than they were last season. The bullpen is better. Brandon McCarthy is an underrated addition to the starting rotation. Acuna will be a huge addition to the lineup.
This is a team that easily could win 85 games, maybe 90 with a few breaks.
The earliest Acuna can be called up without it costing the Braves a year of service is the 14th game. Look at the Braves’ schedule. Nine of their first 13 games are against two NL East rivals, the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies.
You might think the Nationals are too strong for that to be relevant. And you’d be right if the Nats win 95-100 games, as they are capable of doing. But what if they stumble? Some key injuries here and a down season there could reduce Washington to be just a pretty good team.
The Phillies are much improved after losing 96 games last year. They signed Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana. Some of their good young players could break-through seasons. By the way, the Braves were 13-25 against the Phillies and Mets. Reversing those results would be a good start to competing for a wild card spot.
Look at the brief history of the second wild card team, which began in 2012. Of the 12 teams additional teams that made the playoffs, five did so by one game, another by two games, and two others by three games. The latter includes the aforementioned Machado. The Orioles were 60-51 (.540) before his promotion, 33-18 (.647).
Machado had 928 minor league plate appearances, none above Double-A. Acuna has had 1,028 plate appearances, including 243 at Triple-A Gwinnett.
Ralph Garr, the former Brave and now a veteran scout, compared Acuna to a young Hank Aaron. Kevin Seitzer compared him to Roberto Clemente. He was their best player in spring training, one of the best players in baseball. Before that, he tore up the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues.
Braves manager Brian Snitker was correct in saying those are three of the most misleading settings to evaluate players. But Acuna has dominated every single league he has played in.
To say they want to get him more minor league seasoning is nothing less than a lie. Braves fans have been lied to enough the last few years.
This story was originally published March 24, 2018 at 3:30 PM with the headline "Starting Acuna in minors is a financial move, not developmental."