While time will tell with Jared Shuster, Braves have poor draft history

Joey Devine was going to be the Atlanta Braves’ closer for the next decade.

Braxton Davidson possessed raw power, as evidenced by a 500-foot home run in high school.

Jacob Shumate was going to be … wait, who the heck was he?

Yeah, not every player drafted in the first round by the Atlanta Braves turned out to be Chipper Jones or Dale Murphy. Or even Bob Horner.

Devine’s stay with the Braves was shorter than the murder hornets. Davidson, the Braves’ first-round pick just six years ago, is already out of professional baseball. Shumate kicked around in the minor leagues for eight years, never higher than Double-A, before finally calling it a career.

So, best of luck to one Jared Shuster, the latest first-round pick by the Braves, by way of Wake Forest. But forgive me for taking a wait-and-see approach.

Let me be quick to note that my intent is not to cast aspersions on any of these players. It’s incredibly hard to make it TO The Show, let alone make it IN the big leagues. In terms of talent evaluation, baseball is the hardest sport to project. Baseball is a constant game of adjustments. Pitchers figure out hitters; hitters figure out pitchers. Now with analytics becoming more detailed than advanced calculus, that’s even more true.

Austin Riley, another first-round pick, tore up major league pitching last summer when the Braves promoted him and planted him in left field. Two months later, he was close to an automatic out.

The Braves’ track record with first-round picks is less than stellar. Chipper, of course, is the most notable exception to that, a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the face of the franchise for more than a decade. Dale Murphy should be in the Hall of Fame as well. He’s a two-time National League MVP and was considered one of the best all-around players in the National League for a six-year stretch.

The third-best first-rounder is winding down a superb career. A three-time All-Star, a Cy Young Award runner-up, World Series winner. Alas, Adam Wainwright accomplished all of that with the St. Louis Cardinals.

As far as production as a Brave, the third-best first-rounder is Bob Horner. Baseball’s overall No. 1 pick in 1978, Horner went straight to the big leagues and homered in his first game. He won the NL Rookie of the Year and quickly developed into one of the top power hitters in baseball when healthy. Those last two words were the key. Horner played in 130 or more games only three times in his career. Injuries and poor conditioning cut his seasons and his career short. He was done by age 30. Still, he hit 27 or more home runs five times in his career.

Beyond Horner, there’s a handful of first-rounders who enjoyed early success only to fizzle. Steve Avery won 50 games before turning 24, something Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz never did. He was the MVP of the 1991 National League Championship Series and an All-Star in 1993. He won a pivotal Game 4 of the 1995 World Series but he was essentially done after that.

Jeff Francoeur and later Jason Heyward burst on the scene and appeared headed toward stardom. Frenchy had back-to-back seasons of 100-plus RBI, but suddenly fell off. Heyward was an All-Star his rookie season at age 20 and two years later his 27 home runs. But he hasn’t been the same since taking a fastball to the jaw from the Mets’ Jonathon Niese. He’s still one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball and played a key role in the Cubs’ World Series victory with his upbeat speech to his teammates during the Game 7 rain delay.

Others who had their moments: Mike Minor’s career was off to an impressive start before he suffered a shoulder injury. Kent Mercker pitched a no-hitter against the Dodgers and teamed up on another no-hitter. He was a solid starter with the Braves and found his niche as a bullpen lefty, which stretched his career to 19 years. A very solid career.

There’s a new group of players with bright futures. Riley was enjoying an impressive spring training before the coronavirus shut down the sports world. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright are two of the Braves’ top pitching prospects. Shea Langeliers and Brian Shewmake, the team’s two first-rounders last year, had respectable initial minor league seasons. Langeliers is thought to be the catcher of the future.

And maybe he will be the next Brian McCann. Or not.