Another lackluster game from Auburn’s Malzahn simply isn’t in the budget
The wheels on the Gus Bus go ‘round and ‘round.
Gus Malzahn and the Auburn football program find themselves in an all-too-familiar position. Just four games into the season, the Tigers have a better chance of ending with a losing season than winning a championship. The former may seem unlikely. But the latter is all but impossible. The Tigers have two losses already and still have to play at Alabama.
There’s one thing for certain. Saturday’s game at Ole Miss is a must win for Malzahn.
For now, his job security is tied to that panic-driven seven-year, $49 million contract Malzahn signed after beating Georgia and Alabama in a three week span three years ago. After this season, Malzahn will still have four years and $28.6 million remaining on his contract. Seventy-five percent of that is guaranteed, which means it would cost $21.45 million for Auburn to fire Malzahn.
That’s a lot of money to pay somebody to not coach.
But here’s Malzahn’s real job security. Half of that buyout money — $10.725 million, if done after this season — would be due within 30 days of his firing. The other half would be payable over four annual payments.
Can Auburn afford to take this financial hit amid the pandemic, which is already going to cost who knows how many millions of dollars in lost revenue? Probably not.
But can Auburn afford to continue riding this Gus Bus in circles while its top two rivals, Alabama and Georgia, continue to compete for College Football Playoff berths? Absolutely not.
Here’s another way of looking at Malzahn’s buyout. As it stands, he’s slated to receive $7 million in 2021, followed by $100,000 annual increases over the next three years. Those four monthly installments would come out to $2.68 million over the next four years.
In other words, after the initial hit of $10.725 million, Auburn would “save” an average of $4.47 million over the following four years. Granted, much of that money (perhaps all) would have to be reinvested in a new coach. But the market for head coaches is more likely to go up than go down. So money “saved” by not firing Malzahn now will be lost by pushing back the inevitable.
So here are Auburn’s options.
Sit tight and hope Malzahn can turn things around and surpass Georgia and Alabama. Likelihood: Almost nil. The Tigers beat Georgia and Alabama in 2013 on two flukes, the Prayer at Jordan-Hare and Kick Six. They swept those rivalry games in 2017 by getting hot at the right time, and riding the home field advantage in both games. Malzahn has never won in Athens or Tuscaloosa as a head coach, or even come close, for that matter.
Or ...
Accept its place in the food chain, and just hope for that occasional magical season like the Tigers had in 2013 and, to a lesser degree, in 2017. If you’re OK with a high degree of mediocrity, then fine.
Or …
- Make the move based on necessity and opportunity, not finances and convenience.
By opportunity, I’m referring to the availability of a new coach. Georgia might have been willing to give Mark Richt one more season to turn things around. But the threat of Kirby Smart going to South Carolina was not a risk Georgia athletics director Greg McGarity was willing to take.
The question is, does Auburn have a Kirby Smart out there to be hired? That is, an alumnus who is either a proven head coach or a rising star in the profession. Not really.
The coach who comes the closest to fitting that description is Southern Cal’s Clay Helton. His time at USC has been mixed. The Trojans have failed to become national powers again under Helton. But many close to that program believe Helton’s unquestioned character and steady demeanor have helped make a difficult stretch more tenable.
Hiring someone with Auburn ties is not a prerequisite. Pat Dye played at Georgia and coached at Alabama.
Malzahn’s status is not a fait accompli. He can save his job with a strong finish, even if it does include a loss at Alabama.
But after losing last week to South Carolina and nearly losing the week before at home to Arkansas, Malzahn simply cannot afford to lose to Ole Miss. Another lackluster game simply isn’t in the budget.