Guerry Clegg: The Braves' rebuild starts to pay off
The Atlanta Braves' historic organizational overhaul came full circle Friday.
Jason Heyward and the Chicago Cubs agreed to an eight-year contract paying J-Hey $184 million. The timing was apropos, as it came three days after the Braves traded pitcher Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Ender Inciarte and two top minor league prospects, pitcher Aaron Blair and shortstop Dansby Swanson.
This whole overhaul began 13 months ago when the Braves traded Heyward and Jordan Walden to St. Louis for Miller and minor league pitcher Tyrell Jenkins.
So essentially, the Braves traded one year of Heyward for one year of Miller, and now have a solid young outfielder in Inciarte plus two starting pitchers close to being ready for the big leagues, and perhaps the shortstop of their future.
As much as we've criticized John Hart and John Coppolella for trading away virtually every popular Brave since the Heyward deal, they deserve credit. In very short time, they could have a dynamic roster that could contend for a World Series, backed by a deep farm system that could sustain success for years to come.
That itself isn't all that new. Even their skeptics have acknowledged that all these moves might one day pay off.
What has been debated, though, is whether such an extreme makeover was necessary. Perhaps they could have pieced together competitive rosters to get them by until the move to the new ballpark in Cobb County would give them the revenue boost to become more financially competitive.
Heyward's contract with the Cubs justifies the Braves' decision to trade him. He's a good player -- excellent defensive
right fielder and a solid offensive player. But he isn't worth $23 million a year. Not even by today's inflated measures.
Any hitter making that kind of money needs to a middle of the batting order run producer. Heyward has yet to prove that he can be such a hitter. He has a complicated swing that diminishes his power and makes him a ground ball and line drive hitter.
That's basically what Inciarte is but at a fraction of the cost.
"Yeah, but he plays great defense," say Heyward's supporters.
Yes, and so do Inciarte and Nick Markakis. Defense is wonderful, especially up the middle. But you have to score runs, and outfielders need to be run producers, especially corner outfielders.
The Miller trade pushes the Braves closer to being competitive, maybe even as soon as next season. Let's qualify competitive. They're not going to win the NL East or even slip into the playoffs as a wildcard.
But they could hover somewhere around .500 for most of the season.
The lineup might not be as punchless and it once seemed. Granted, several things have to go right. Freddie Freeman needs to bounce back and stay healthy. Markakis needs to regain some of his lost power. Erick Aybar, replacing Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, needs to have another productive season. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who turns 39 this month, needs to prove that last season's rebirth wasn't a fluke.
If all of that comes together, and if Hector Olivera can adjust to big league pitching and Adonis Garcia can build on last season's solid second half, the lineup could productive.
There are almost no certainties on the pitching staff, either among the starters or the bullpen. Julio Teheran and Matt Wisler proved they can turn over leads to the bullpen.
Beyond that, the rotation is filled with question marks. Veteran Bud Norris should provide some stability. Williams Perez, Mike Foltynewicz, Manny Banuelos and Ryan Weber all had their ups and downs as rookies. Jenkins, Blair, Lucas Sims and Chris Ellis appear to be getting close.
The back end of the bullpen could be fairly strong with Arodys Vizcaino, Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson. The rest of the bullpen is questionable at best. How much they'll have to rely on bullpen depth depends on how effective their young starters can be.
Again, there are too many question marks to get overly excited about 2016. But it might not be so dreadful after all.
-- Guerry Clegg is an independent correspondent. You can write to him at sports@ledger-enquirer.com
This story was originally published December 12, 2015 at 11:00 PM with the headline "Guerry Clegg: The Braves' rebuild starts to pay off ."