Guerry Clegg: Measuring Braves’ success in 2016 beyond wins and losses

Breaking news: The Atlanta Braves will not win the World Series this year.

Or make the playoffs. Or finish above .500.

They might, however, avoid last place in the National League East thanks to the equally uninspiring Philadelphia Phillies.

There are two signs that this final season at Turner Field will look dreadfully like many of those summers at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium.

One was their dismal spring training performance. They won six games going into Saturday’s spring finale, worst in all of baseball. Sure, spring training results are meaningless. But it’s discouraging nonetheless.

The other sign is the folks in Vegas are convinced that the Braves will be awful. Most of them set the Braves’ over/under win total around 65 or 66.

“Prior to the Astros, when teams were rebuilding they didn’t tank and make it so obvious,” Steve Mikkleson of Atlantis Reno told VegasInsider.com. “But now you’ve got teams like the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Reds and Rockies that aren’t even trying. The Braves are the most obvious of the bunch. They traded away their best pitcher, Shelby Miller, for prospects and they have Bud Norris expected to be their No. 2 starter. They’re like a good Triple-A roster.”

That might be literal to some degree. The roster that opens the season Monday at home against the Washington Nationals might not even closely resemble the one that will carry the team to the merciful homestretch.

Personally, I’d take the over at 66 wins. The lineup and bullpen are better than they were last year. Besides, this season could still be a success on some levels regardless the final record. This whole massive rebuilding project the Braves have undertaken is all about trying to win in 2017 when they move into SunTrust Park. So while it would be nice to see Jeff Francoeur have a productive homecoming, this season is all about trying to win next year.

The 1990 Braves lost 97 games. But they laid the foundation for the ’91 World Series team. Steve Avery was just 3-11 in ’90. The next year he won 18 games. David Justice went on a second-half tear.

Likewise, six developments would make 2016 successful no matter what the final record. In no particular order, they are:

▪  Freddie Freeman proves his wrist problems are behind him. The Braves need Freeman to produce for obvious reasons, mainly that he’s their best hitter. He’s also the closest thing they have to a franchise hitter. After this year, the Braves will still owe him $106 million over the next five seasons. Even with revenue projected to increase once they move to Cobb County, they can’t afford to pay that kind of money for a .270 hitter.

▪  Matt Wisler emerges as a dependable starting pitcher. He has 20 big league starts under his belt, and many of them were impressive. Julio Teheran had just four big league starts plus three relief appearances entering the 2013 season. He won 14 games that year and made the NL All-Star team the next season. Wisler is capable of doing the same.

▪  At least two more of the pitching prospects take the step that Wisler did last season and shows he’s capable of winning in the big leagues. Williams Perez is the closest to being ready, but others could pass him this year. John Gant has made a positive impression. This could be a make or break year for Mike Foltynewicz. There’s no shortage of candidates – Sean Newcomb, Aaron Blair, Kolby Allard, Tyrell Jenkins and Lucas Sims – to push for a spot in the rotation by summer.

If two of these pitchers are ready to win next season to go with Teheran and Wisler, that would create a solid rotation.

▪  Either Ozzie Albies OR Dansby Swanson can earn a starting job by midseason. The Braves are set at shortstop this season with Erick Aybar. It’s doubtful that Aybar will be with the club next season. The Braves need to have his replacement ready. It’s not out of the question for either Albies or Swanson to make it up to Atlanta this season.

▪  Hector Olivera continues to hit as he did in spring training. Although he doesn’t have a lot of power, Olivera can be a run producer. His power should improve as he gets more comfortable against big league pitching. He might eventually move back to third base. If he can hit as he did in Cuba and in spring training, he will play somewhere.

▪  Adrodys Vizcaino develops into a shut-down closer. So far, Vizcaino has handled the role well. He had nine saves in 10 opportunities last season after Jason Grilli was injured and Jim Johnson was traded. Can he do that for a full season? Most games are decided in the last three innings. Having a reliable closer is critical to winning.

If the Braves can manage all of that, they might go into next season with some hope. And this season might even be more tolerable than expected.

This story was originally published April 2, 2016 at 3:39 PM with the headline "Guerry Clegg: Measuring Braves’ success in 2016 beyond wins and losses."