Guerry Clegg: Looking into future of college football

I saw something online last week that was utterly ridiculous — and at the same time interesting. It was a click-bait slideshow projecting the next nine college football national champions. The premise itself — that someone can see nine years into the future — was absurd.

But it was something about college football in May that was not about recruiting, satellite camps or another arrest. So I took the bait and started clicking.

It’s on a site called Collegespun.com. They project — OK, maybe hypothesize is a better word — the next nine champions to be Clemson, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, Georgia, Oregon with Chip Kelly returning, Notre Dame with Urban Meyer and Texas with Tom Herman.

I don’t think it was intended to be taken seriously. But here’s what is interesting. There’s a common thread to the reasoning. It’s about coaching.

Well, maybe not the Clemson pick. That’s not a knock on Dabo Swinney, it just simply that Clemson is a trendy pick. The Tigers played Alabama tough in the national championship game, and they return the early Heisman favorite in Deshaun Watson. It helps that they have what is thought to be one of the easiest paths to the playoffs by playing in the ACC.

But the rest of the picks were all about the coaches. Nick Saban. Jim Harbaugh. Urban Meyer — twice. Even Kirby Smart.

The intent here isn’t to debate the picks. First of all, it’s pointless to take a hypothetical too seriously. Besides, I don’t pretend to know what will happen this season, never mind the eight seasons after that

I do think the list sheds light on how we look at college football these days. It’s all about the national championship and expectations. Perception becomes reality. Perceptions such as:

▪  It’s just a matter of time before Harbaugh leads Michigan to a national championship.

▪  Another perception is that Smart will prove to be Georgia’s missing link to winning a title.

▪  There’s too much talent at Texas and Florida not to win a championship.

We’ll see. Who knows whether any of this will come true? Even the 2016 season could be full of surprises. The early favorites are Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan. Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State lost several key players. In the NFL draft two weeks ago, 17 of the first 61 players selected — nearly 28 percent — came from one of those three schools. Overall, they had 28 players drafted and seven others on the draft board.

That’s a lot of players to replace, even for talent factories such as Alabama and Ohio State. Look at it this way. Ohio State lost 15 players to the NFL, and the Buckeyes didn’t even reach their conference championship game.

It takes more than talent. It takes a bit of luck. Alabama trailed Tennessee with less than three minutes to play. A loss would have knocked the Crimson Tide out of the national championship picture. Michigan State made the playoffs in large part because the Michigan punter dropped the ball and then channeled his inner Garo Yepremian and tried to make a play rather than just falling on the football. Clemson easily could have lost to Louisville, Notre Dame, South Carolina or North Carolina.

The best team doesn’t always win the national championship. Even when it does, often times things could have turned out much differently if not for a single play.

So while Michigan and Georgia appear to be in capable hands with Harbaugh and Smart, it’s a bit presumptuous to think either one will win a national championship. Speculating on such things, though, does make for interesting reading. Especially in May.

This story was originally published May 14, 2016 at 5:34 PM with the headline "Guerry Clegg: Looking into future of college football."