Fort Benning will help the Columbus economy in 2020, but experts say it won’t be enough

Fort Benning will continue to be an economic bolster for Columbus in 2020, according to Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth.

Though it contributes to a lack of economic diversity, it’s not a bad thing, he said. The 2019 announcement of an upcoming U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, training complex, as well as military pay raises and other investments at the post, will contribute to continued growth in the Fort Benning area.

“Putting all that together, the immediate prospects for Fort Benning, and in turn Columbus, are very good,” Humphreys said.

His remarks to local business and community leaders at the Columbus Convention and Trade Center on Thursday were part of the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business annual “Georgia Economic Outlook” series.

Both Humphreys and fellow speaker Ben Ayers, dean of the Terry College of Business, predict a slower year for growth in the state and Columbus in 2020 as the U.S. enters another year of the longest economic expansion in the nation’s history.

They presented a mixed forecast, both remarking on the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S., China and other trading partners as the biggest indicator for potential recession.

“Despite the recent de-escalation of the trade war, the trade war that began in 2018 is the main recession risk that we see and the strongest economic headwind,” Ayers said.

Fewer new jobs in Columbus

For Columbus, fewer new jobs are one of many economic factors Humphreys said will contribute to slower growth than the city has seen in the past few years.

Job growth in the Columbus metropolitan area is expected to slow this year with around 200 new jobs added compared to 1,800 in 2018.

On the positive side, Fort Benning along with Columbus State University will contribute to growth of the economy, Humphreys said, as well as a strong housing market and solid economic development projects announced last year and in previous years, such as Califormulations and the new Mercer University campus.

“The forecast is positive; the local economy will expand. The pace of growth will be a little bit slower here than what we’re predicting for the state as a whole, but that’s not so bad because only three metros — Atlanta, Gainesville and Hinesville — will actually outpace the state in terms of the rate of growth,” Humphreys said.

The combination of a low cost of living and an improving quality of workforce are both positive for the city’s economic growth, he said. Larger than average proportions of younger generations also bode well for growth.

Government accounts for 36% of non-farm earnings in the Columbus metro area, compared to only 16% of earnings nationwide.

“That’s because of Fort Benning, and Fort Benning indeed is your largest employer,” Humphreys said.

TSYS (now Global Payments), Columbus Regional Healthcare System, AFLAC and St. Francis round out the top five employers in Columbus.

In the private sector, there are two industries that really contribute much more here than they do across the rest of the state, according to Humphreys: Financial activities, and the leisure and hospitality industries.

“Loan growth, financial deregulation and tax reform all favor the financial activities industry, but due to some efficiency gains, jobs may actually be lost in that industry in 2020,” Humphreys said.

This is exemplified by the 2019 merger of TSYS and Global Payments in Columbus.

Growth, unemployment in Columbus

The hospitality industry is expected to do very well in 2020, though growth will be slower than in 2019, Humphreys said.

“The job and personal income growth across the state and the nation will keep people traveling more for vacations,” he said.

Negatives Humphreys mentioned include below average educational attainment, a low proportion of high-tech jobs and a negative net migration, or not a lot of people moving to Columbus.

Relatively slow population growth and a younger demographic means the healthcare industry may not grow as fast in Columbus as in the rest of the state, he said, but he expects residents will do less outshopping than in the past due to the expansion of the John B. Amos Cancer Center.

Housing recovery has been slow in Columbus in terms of house prices, Humphreys said, but he expects prices to rise in 2020 and home building to continue to grow.

“Job growth hasn’t been that strong with the exception of 2018, and what it really takes to push up home prices is not just job growth but growth of high-income, high-paying, high-wage jobs,” Humphreys said. “We just haven’t really seen that here.”

In his presentation on Georgia, Ayers said the state should look to add about 34,000 new jobs this year, compared to about 79,000 in 2019.

Those jobs are expected to be added in education, healthcare, professional services and hospitality.

The unemployment rate is forecast to be 3.9%, slightly higher than the 3.6% rate estimated for 2019, he said.

“The state of Georgia has been hit a little bit more by the trade war, in agriculture it’s been hit and in manufacturing, and that’s especially true in rural Georgia,” Ayers said. “There will be some job loss in agriculture and manufacturing, which are obviously more trade-dependent industries.”