Here’s how at risk GA may be from hurricanes in 2026, early forecasts show
Despite the unpredictability of El Niño’s influence, AccuWeather forecasts a quieter 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and a less impactful season for Georgia.
The season could see quick intensification even with fewer storms overall.
Key predictions
- Named storms: 11-16 (average 14).
- Hurricanes: 4-7 (average 7).
- Category or higher hurricanes: 2-4 (average 3).
- U.S. direct impacts: 3-5
Georgia’s risks
- 49% chance of a named storm tracking within 50 miles of Georgia
- 4% chance of a major hurricane (Category 3+) passing near the state
- Rapid intensification risk is elevated due to climate change
- Storm surge reaches farther inland as sea levels rise
- Less rainfall relief for farmers and water managers
Contributing factors
- Increases in wind shear across the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation and intensity
- Warm Atlantic water temperatures
- Climate change increasing likelihood of rapid intensification
- Rising sea levels
- Exceptionally warm Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic water temperatures
- Uncertainty of the speed of El Niño transition (a slower shift could mean more storm activity)
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