Kemp was making a big move even before Trump got behind him in primary
Not long after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced that he was picking businesswoman Kelly Loeffler for the open Senate seat to replace retiring Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson, conservative congress members and pundits pounced all over Kemp, threatening him with a primary challenge, commanding their supporters to target Kemp with critiques and insinuating that Kemp owes his job to President Donald Trump, and must pick whom the president wants. Even National Public Radio claimed that Trump’s endorsement gave Kemp the GOP nomination.
All of them are wrong. And the numbers don’t lie.
If all you did was look at the 2018 Georgia GOP primary based on two election results, you might also reach this incorrect conclusion too. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle led in the first round of the GOP primary, 39%-26% over Kemp. But then Trump endorsed Kemp just before the second round of the primary. Kemp wins the runoff (the second round) a week later by 14 points. Case closed, right?
Not at all. Here are the facts, and the whole story. In an April poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle had a 4 to 1 lead over Kemp, his closest rival. But Cagle’s star was fading long before Trump waded into the race. Secret recordings by Clay Tippins about Cagle playing politics with his decisions (such as backing a bad education bill to hurt a rival’s fundraising) really hurt the former front-runner.
Kemp was nearly tied with Cagle in June in surveys, and surpassed Cagle in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (July 5-12). By the time news came out on Trump’s endorsement (July 18), Kemp’s lead swelled to nearly 20 points in a Fox 5 poll (July 17-18, with most respondents already expressing their views before Trump weighed in). Kemp won by 14 points on July 24. You can double-check me on realclearpolitics.com if you don’t believe me.
Trump’s endorsement was more an exercise in the phrase “shooting the wounded.” Cagle was already fading before Trump’s pick. Kemp would have probably won, even if Trump endorsed Cagle. One only has to see Trump’s failed endorsements in Alabama in 2017 (first Luther Strange and then Roy Moore) to realize that while he’s popular among Republicans, Southern locals don’t always take their marching orders from the president.
Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz’s comments about Kemp were nasty, in the party where President Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment was to not speak ill of a fellow Republican. Here are Gaetz’s words: “You are ignoring his request because you THINK you know better than @POTUS,” Gaetz tweeted. “If you substitute your judgment for the President’s, maybe you need a primary in 2022. Let’s see if you can win one w/o Trump.” Fox’s Sean Hannity piled on, insisting his supporters pressure Kemp to change his mind.
If anything, Gaetz’s attempt at intimidating Kemp probably worked as well as the Florida Gators did against the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2019 college football rivalry. Instead, Kemp picked Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA Atlanta Dream.
New Yorkers such as Trump and Hannity or folks from Hollywood, Florida (Gaetz) showed that they just don’t understand Southerners. Trying to tell them who to nominate just doesn’t work. Even Republican Southerners would rather make their own choices instead of having Trump or an ally order them to make another pick. And if they try to “primary” Kemp in 2022, I expect the Governor to flatten any GOP opponent, barring a major scandal.
John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu. His Twitter account is JohnTures2.