Millard Grimes: Big stakes in 2016 elections
In the election years when the presidency is at stake, that contest naturally draws the most interest -- and money. But there are also important races for the U.S. Senate this coming year, with 34 seats to be determined.
The United States has had what might be termed "divided government" for most of the last 20 years, with the presidency held by one party's candidate and the House and Senate -- either both or one -- held by the other party. The result hasn't been pretty, and the impression created has been continued wrangling and deadlock.
Actually it hasn't been quite that bad, but there has been a definite decline in respect for government in general, and for Congress in particular.
Senators are elected for six-year terms, which makes Senate elections much more important. Senators have the task of approving or rejecting the president's appointments to the Supreme Court. During the next four years, five Supreme Court justices will be replaced, due to age, illness, or death.
Of the 34 Senate seats to be decided this November, 22 are currently held by Republicans and 11 by Democrats, giving the Democrats their best chance of gaining seats since 2006 election.
Overall, Republicans hold a majority in the Senate; the two Senators listed as independent vote with the Democrats, including Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a presidential candidate.
As recently as 2009, Democrats held 60 votes in the Senate, giving them enough to override filibusters and other parliamentary obstacles that frustrate the majority. That was in Barack Obama's first term, and among bills approved in that period was the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare. That was passed without a single Republican vote in the Senate or the House, but could be replaced should Republicans win the presidency or three more Senate seats to give them 60 votes in the Senate.
The key races to watch seem to be the following:
Florida: Marco Rubio (R) is up for reelection to a second term, but is currently spending his time and money on his presidential candidacy. He can also run for his Senate seat, but his dual candidacy has put the seat in play, especially since former Gov. Jeb Bush is also running for president and contention has developed between the two.
A sleeper issue in this race may be Rubio's strong opposition to normalizing relations with Cuba, as many Floridians, including former Cuban residents, recognize the benefits of the normalization after 55 years of conflict, which has mainly hurt the Cuban people.
Colorado: Michael Bennett (R) is a target in the state where the Republican Senate candidate in 2014 won a narrow victory, and where the Hispanic vote continues to grow, and generally backs Democrats.
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R) faces a challenge from Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs as a soldier in Iraq. Illinois was considered a Democratic state when Kirk won in 2010, in the Republican surge following the approval of the healthcare bill, which doesn't figure to be as volatile an issue in 2016. The outcome will be influenced by the presidential vote, and who the candidates happen to be.
Indiana: Dan Coates (R) is running for reelection after a close victory in 2010, a non- presidential year. Democratic candidates tend to benefit from a larger turnout in presidential years, and as in Illinois, much will depend on who the presidential candidates are. Indiana has also been a political battleground over the so-called religious rights bill, which cuts both ways, as it is usually seen as a bill on homosexual rights.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley (R) is running for his seventh six-year term as Senator, having first been elected in 1980. He will be 83 if elected and 89 by the end of his term. He is still popular, but Obama carried Iowa in 2012 with 53% of the vote.
Kentucky: Sen. Rand Paul, another Republican candidate for president, is also up for reelection and there's some question as to whether he can be on the ballot for both president and senator. Considering his less than 5% support in the presidential polls, he's expected to abandon that race, but will be favored for reelection to the Senate. Kentucky elected a Republican governor in this year's election.
There are several other close Senate races which will be covered in later a later column, but overall, it would seem the Democrats have a fair chance of recapturing the Senate.
Millard Grimes, editor of the Columbus Enquirer from 1961-69 and founder of the Phenix Citizen. is author of "The Last Linotype: The Story of Georgia and Its Newspapers Since World War II." A profile of Grimes can be found in the Georgia Encyclopedia, www.georgiaencyclopedia.org.
This story was originally published November 9, 2015 at 12:00 AM with the headline "Millard Grimes: Big stakes in 2016 elections ."