Should Auburn be OK with nine-win season? Answering reader questions before Outback Bowl
Auburn’s 2019 regular season has wrapped up. The Tigers finished the regular season 9-3, with notable wins over Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama, and close losses to LSU, Florida and Georgia.
The Tigers’ Outback Bowl matchup with Minnesota (1 p.m. EST, ESPN) is, effectively, a consolation game. The Tigers failed to make the SEC Championship and subsequently, the College Football Playoff.
But the season wasn’t without positives: true freshman quarterback Bo Nix made strides, Auburn’s defense played at an elite level for much of the year and the Tigers closed out the season with a memorable Iron Bowl win.
We’ll be answering reader questions ahead of Auburn’s Outback Bowl matchup with Minnesota. For now, let’s start with these two:
Q: Would LSU or bama be OK going 9-3 with (Auburn’s) schedule? If not, why not? If not, why should Auburn be OK with it?
The short answer is no, Alabama and LSU would not be OK with going 9-3. I also do not think anybody is accusing Auburn of being OK with a three-loss season, either.
That’s not the expectation at a program like Auburn, and Malzahn knows that. Malzahn said he “expects to win championships,” at SEC Media Days back in July.
He said that while some schools may celebrate eight wins, it’s “just not a part of Auburn.”
“Win the SEC, win the (national) championship, that’s the goal,” Tigers offensive lineman Prince Tega Wanogho said in Hoover. “As a whole unit, as a team … this is what we’re going for.”
But an SEC or national championship might’ve been a bit wishful thinking for Auburn this year. The schedule was tough and, with a true freshman quarterback and an offense that struggled at times, it was never going to be one the Tigers could easily navigate.
That said, this season really could have gone a different way if the Tigers had gotten one or two more breaks. They lost to LSU in Baton Rouge by three points. They beat eventual Pac-12 champion Oregon in Nix’s first college game. They looked destined to score the tying touchdown against Georgia, had Nix completed that fourth-down pass to Harold Joiner.
No, Auburn should not be OK with a nine-win regular season. But it’s important to consider what the realistic expectations were for this team entering the year: Per ESPN’s preseason FPI index, Auburn was predicted to finish around 8-4. A win in the Outback Bowl will see the Tigers hit 10 wins.
Q: What is Gus’ record during his other six years with us and how did those schedules stack up against this year’s schedule? How should those four-and-five loss seasons be viewed? Deserved criticism? Keep in mind, Gus is getting paid SEC championship and beyond money.
OK, there’s a lot to delve into here. To start, here are Malzahn’s end-of-season records in each of his seven seasons at Auburn:
2013: 12-2; SEC champions; loss in BCS Championship
2014: 8-5; loss in Outback Bowl
2015: 7-6; win in Birmingham Bowl
2016: 8-5; loss in Sugar Bowl
2017: 10-4; SEC Championship appearance; loss in Peach Bowl
2018: 8-5; win in Music City Bowl
2019: 9-3; bowl game still to be played
It’s probably fair to say that 2013’s team might have overachieved a bit. Two of its memorable wins — the Prayer at Jordan Hare against Georgia and the Kick Six against Alabama — happened on highly unlikely (and borderline flukey) plays.
That’s not to take away from what that team did, and the remarkable job Malzahn did in nearly winning a national title with a team that won just three games the year prior, but it’s important to remember that when discussing the rest of Malzahn’s Auburn tenure.
Auburn went 2-3 against teams that finished the regular season ranked in 2019, and face No. 16 Minnesota on New Year’s Day. Those records in Malzahn’s other six seasons (including conference championships and bowl games) look like this:
2013: 3-2
2014: 1-4
2015: 0-3
2016: 2-3
2017: 3-4
2018: 2-3
How those seasons should be viewed probably depends on which teams you’re comparing. If we’re grading Malzahn’s tenure on the Alabama curve, obviously few teams are going to come close to the success the Crimson Tide have endured under Nick Saban.
Just for curiosity’s sake, let’s compare Malzahn’s tenure to Georgia coach Kirby Smart. Here are Smart’s records by season since taking the Georgia job, and his records against teams that finished the season ranked:
2016: 8-5 overall, 1-2 vs. teams that finished ranked (win in Liberty Bowl)
2017: 13-2 overall, 4-2 vs. teams that finished ranked (won SEC Championship and Rose Bowl, lost in CFP National Championship)
2018: 11-3, 3-3 vs. teams that finished ranked (SEC runner-up, loss in Sugar Bowl)
2019: 11-2, 3-1 vs. teams that finished ranked (SEC runner-up, playing No. 8 Baylor in Sugar Bowl Jan. 1)
Auburn winning just two games against a team that finished ranked from 2014 to 2016 is not ideal. But Auburn did reach the SEC Championship in 2017, and won the conference and nearly the national title in 2013.
And it’s worth noting again: Had a few breaks gone Auburn’s way this season, we could be talking about a 10-or-11 win Auburn team. Whether Malzahn deserves criticism for the four-and-five loss seasons is up to the reader.
