Is the local Columbus economy recovering from COVID-19? What the outlook shows
Columbus’ economic outlook projects continued growth as the local economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
It’s a “very good” outlook, according to Jeff Humphreys, director of UGA’s Selig Center for Economic Growth.
“It’s a positive forecast for 2021. It reflects continuing recovery from the COVID-19 recession,” Humphreys said during a Georgia Economic Outlook 2021 presentation.
How does Columbus’ 2021 compare to pre-COVID times, and just how much growth is expected for the city’s economy?
The outlook
The Columbus area lost 11% of its jobs in 2020, Humphreys said, compared to a nationwide average of 15%.
Locally, the heaviest-hit areas were the leisure and hospitality industries and the state government.
“As bad as that sounds,” he said, “it could’ve been a lot worse.”
One silver lining was that Columbus, in the three months after reopening, recovered nearly half of the jobs it had lost — “about on par” with the rebound nationally, Humphreys said.
Humphreys projects the Columbus area to add around 1,800 non-farm jobs in 2021 — a 1.6% growth locally, compared to a sub-1% projection nationwide.
Several factors will boost economic recovery in Columbus: Fort Building, Columbus State, local economic development projects and home building.
“Fort Benning accounts for around 20% of total non-farm jobs in the Columbus area,” Humphreys said. “And the largest employer in the area is Fort Benning.”
TSYS, Aflac, Columbus Regional Healthcare System and St. Francis Hospital round out the top 5.
The leisure and hospitality industry was hit “very hard” by the pandemic, Humphreys said.
“We’re going to see continuing recovery in 2021,” he said. “But this recovery is occurring from a very depressed level of activity, so full recovery for hospitality is likely to take several years.”
The Chattahoochee Riverwalk, Coca-Cola Space Science Center, The Columbus Museum and Whitewater Express are all members of an extensive list of attractions that can attract leisure travel to the area. Columbus recently submitted a bid, to host the Canoe Sprint World Cup, which will take place in 2022 or 2023, and the ICF Canoe Freestyle World Championships, to take place in 2023 or 2024.
All of this is expected to spark economic growth locally, help the housing market rebound and provide continuing growth as the area recovers from a rough 2020.
“I think continuing economic recovery for the Georgia economy, the national economy, and the Columbus economy will keep the housing rebound going,” Humphreys said. “ ... The economic outlook for Columbus is quite good.
“The COVID-19 recession is over.”
Comparing economy to pre-COVID
Columbus’ economy was projected to grow in 2018, 2019 and 2020, before the pandemic hit.
Job growth projections were smaller, though.
Columbus was projected to see “little to no job growth” along with Macon and Savannah, according to Terry College’s 2020 economic forecast. The 2019 announcement of an upcoming U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, training complex, as well as military pay raises and other investments at the post, were projected contribute to continued growth in the Fort Benning area.
In 2019, the Columbus area was expected to add around 1,000 jobs, excluding Fort Benning, with housing prices rising slightly.
Personal income growth was projected to grow 4.9% that year, down slightly from 5.4% in 2018. The city was also projected to add 1,000 jobs that year.
