With no mask mandate and low vaccine rates, what’s the current COVID risk in Columbus?
As COVID-19 data points in Muscogee County hit their lowest levels since the start of the pandemic, city leaders and public health experts are urging the city’s unvaccinated residents to take action to prevent any further spread as summer approaches.
The city’s mask mandate is gone, and Mayor Skip Henderson said that it would take “significant” increases in case rates and hospitalizations for it to return. In recent executive orders, Gov. Brian Kemp removed many of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions. A new order with “significant changes” is expected to be issued sometime before Memorial Day, a Kemp spokesperson told the Ledger-Enquirer.
While it may feel like the pandemic is over to some, health experts say it’s not. The risk of contracting coronavirus is low but not zero.
“My bottom line takeaway is the pandemic is not over, and it’s important that we all make good choices here,” said Amber Schmidtke, a public health microbiologist and a member of a state coronavirus data task force. “We’re in a much better position than we were a year ago heading into Memorial Day. … It’s important for people to not ignore what we learned in the last year.”
Recent Columbus COVID-19 data
As of May 27, Muscogee County’s 14-day COVID-19 case rate is 101 per 100,000 people. Hospitalizations have fallen 29% over the last two weeks, according to data published by the New York Times.
Henderson suspended the city’s mask ordinance last week after the 14-day case rate fell under 100 per 100,000 people — the threshold that allows local governments to enforce mask-wearing under state law if they so choose. Columbus councilors could repeal the mask ordinance altogether, excluding any indoor building or facility operated by the consolidated government, at its next meeting.
Vaccination rates lag in Columbus. As of May 27, only 22% of residents are fully vaccinated. The state average is 32%, and the national average 40%, according to data from the Georgia Department of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Still, the estimated risk for infection in Muscogee County is low. According to the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool from Georgia Tech University, there’s a 12% chance that at least one COVID-19 positive person is present in a gathering of 50 in Columbus.
Pam Kirkland, spokesperson for the Georgia Department of Public Health’s West Central Health District, said she is hopeful there won’t be another wave of infections and deaths. She pointed to vaccination figures among the oldest and most vulnerable of the city’s population as a positive sign.
According to data from the Georgia Department of Public Health, nearly 74% of Columbus residents over the age of 85 are fully vaccinated. Nearly 75% of residents ages 75-84 are fully vaccinated, and almost 77% of residents ages 65-74 are immunized.
“Hopefully, enough people have been vaccinated and people who have had natural antibodies will play into the holiday numbers and keep them down,” she said. “What we can do is continue with our message. ...I think we’ll see people continue to (get the vaccine), but I don’t know that it will be in the large numbers that we saw previously.”
Henderson said the low overall vaccination rate is concerning, but other data trends remain positive. The city will continue to promote CDC guidance and mask-wearing for unvaccinated residents.
The mask mandate could return, Henderson said, if the number of current COVID-19 hospitalizations climb above 65 and the two-week case rate approaches 200 per 100,000 people.
“If you’re not vaccinated and you’re careless, there’s still a risk,” he said. “At some point, we have to continue to move the city back towards normalcy. The folks who just adamantly refuse to get a vaccine, we respect their right to do that. But they should by now clearly understand there are some risks involved.”
Statewide COVID-19 trends
Trends statewide are improving as well. State data shows seven-day confirmed case averages dipped below 1,000 earlier this month for the first time since June 2020. Hospitalizations over the last two weeks have fallen 22%, according to data published by the New York Times.
The drops come after Kemp rolled back many of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions in early April, including the elimination of the gatherings ban and sheltering in place requirements. A more recent order at the beginning of May ended additional restrictions, like mask requirements for restaurant workers.
A recent executive order from Kemp prohibited the implementation of a vaccine passport program, and in an interview with Fox News Wednesday, Georgia’s governor said he is preparing to sign an executive order that would restrict public schools from requiring that students, staffers and teachers wear masks.
Kemp spokesperson Cody Hall told the Ledger-Enquirer Thursday that a new order would be issued Friday. Previous restrictions will not be fully repealed, but there will be “significant changes,” Hall said. Hall did not specify what would change.
What’s the advice for Memorial Day?
Schmidtke advises folks, especially unvaccinated residents, to make smart decisions this weekend. It’s important to do as much as you can outside, she said.
“It’s sort of the official kickoff to summer, and what better way to celebrate summer than being outside,” she said. “It’s possible to gather if we can do so smartly.
“We worked really hard to get to this point. Let’s not throw it away.”
This story was originally published May 28, 2021 at 6:00 AM.